I'm going to take the Panthers here despite it being a road game as Navy will get to play in their home stadium. Pitt will still have plenty fans on hand maybe 1/3 of the stadium will be Pitt fans, but the bigger reason I'm going with Pitt is they are excited to be here playing against a ranked opponent in Navy. Both teams will run the ball first, and play defense, and I like Pitt's ability to make key stops in the red zone and on third downs where they have enjoyed much more success than Navy against a more challenging schedule. Pitt has held opponents to 36.8% conversions on third downs, 50% in the red zone for a TD% compared to Navy 46.67%, and 63%. The overall size of Pitt's fronts will eventually be the advantage late in this game.
The American Athletic Conference is now 0-4 in bowl games and not looking at tough as we thought. Pittsburgh has plenty of time to prepare for the triple option, and I love that this team gave up 376 yards in a winning effort against Georgia Tech on normal rest. This keeps these defensive players motivated with film to study before facing Navy's threat which does not have good of athletes. If you watched Navy/Army you could clearly see that. Many of the Pitt players remember a loss in 2013 to Navy and have revenge on their mind including Pitt's most explosive offensive weapon in Tyler Boyd. The extra prep will also allow Pitt to find new creative ways to get their best players the ball in space, and I think this game will be close throughout, but the advantages that Pitt has in some of the key stats will be the difference. Pitt also ranked 19th in special teams efficiency while Navy is 69th.
